Here’s my broader take on what brought down Orbán, which I wrote for The Bulwark. I think Péter Magyar’s victory will likely prove to be a significant event in Hungary’s post-1989 history.
“EVERY SO OFTEN history offers up events that feel so improbable and fortuitous that one is tempted to see in them the guiding hand of providence. The end of South African apartheid was one such epochal shift; the collapse of European communism was another. For most Hungarians, the end of Orbánism falls in that category as well. The year 2026 marks a dramatic turning point in their history, the second time in thirty-seven years that they have lived through a ‘system change’ (rendszerváltás).”
Categories: Hungary, Politics, Research
Orbán Will Lose Hungary’s Election in Two Weeks–If It’s Clean 
Growing Fears That Hungary’s Orbán May Cancel Next Month’s Election 
Interview with Zoltán Fleck, Chair of Péter Márki-Zay’s Constitutional Working Group 
H. David Baer 
Hi David, I enjoyed your article.
Two minor remarks.
#1
tisztelet = respect, becsület = honor.
#2
Petőfi’s “A Tisza” (1847) is about nature, although there is a flood at the end. I fail to see politics by reading the text (but I am not an expert in the history of literature)
His “Föltámadott a tenger” (1848) on the other hand does speak about the revolution like a stormy sea (the rulers = a ship, the ruled = the sea)
Sincerely
Zoli “tappanch”
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Hello tappanch!
I’m not an expert on Hungarian literature, however: Petőfi uses water imagery and metaphors a lot in his poetry to describe the power of the people. I think it’s quite plausible and defensible to read “A Tisza” as a metaphor for the Hungarian people, even though it’s not explicit. And in any case, that’s how the poem was used in Magyar’s campaign. There were also implicit references throughout his campaign to “Föltámadott a tenger.” In fact, i think both poems played an important role in the campaign and kind of merged together.
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Hi David, I enjoyed your article.
Two minor remarks.
#1
tisztelet = respect, becsület = honor.
#2
Petőfi’s “A Tisza” (1847) is about nature, although there is a flood at the end. I fail to see politics by reading the text (but I am not an expert in the history of literature)
His “Föltámadott a tenger” (1848) on the other hand does speak about the revolution like a stormy sea (the rulers = a ship, the ruled = the sea)
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Stephan, thank you for these comments!
I’ve never been completely clear in my own mind to what extent the Orban regime resembled the Horthy regime. It clearly resembled the Horthy period in a lot of ways, but I’m not sure how far to go with the comparison.
A lot of the anti-liberalism, anti-communism of the Orban regime had antisemitic undertones – just think of the role George Soros played in Fidesz propaganda. Orban’s apologists always talked about how large the Jewish community is in Hungary (which is true) and about Orban’s good relationship with Netanyahu. It may be the best way to understand Orban’s use of antisemitism was a cynical appeal to antisemitic relflexes and biases inherited from the Horthy period.
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“It may be the best way to understand Orban’s use of antisemitism was a cynical appeal to antisemitic relflexes and biases inherited from the Horthy period.”
I agree (partly) with your statement, since Orban and FIDESZ didnt only use antisemitic reflexs from the Horthy period. I dont think he is an antisemit himself, but he (and FIDESZ) cynically uses the widespread antisemitic attitudes among Hungarians. Talking in Hungary (negatively) about communism/socialism often has an antisemitic connex. It doesnt have to be outspoken, it is in the Hungarian subconsciousness. Every child learns in school that Bela Kun was Jew and that among the sovjet republic style government as well as among other left-wing politicians in Hungary after WW I were many Jewish people.
Similar is the presentation in school of the communist take-over after WW II in Hungary and the Rakosi.
On the other hand liberalism is also connected with Jewish people not at least since SzDSz was dominated by Budapest Jewish intelligentsia.
Thus the anti-communist and the illiberal policy or attitude of Orban and FIDESZ appeals to the antisemitic sentiments in the Hungarian population. The notion of “Christian nature” of Hungary strengthens this appeal and defining the Hungarian nation as a Christian nation literally excludes non-Christians.
You mentioned the campaign against Soros, but you could also add in the past the campaign against Botka in 2017/18 https://444.hu/2017/04/27/boduletes-simicskazassal-es-sorosozassal-valaszol-a-jobbik-plakatjaira-a-fidesz
And in particular in the last years the campaign against Zelenskyi and against Ukraine.
In late spring 2025, when the campaign against Ukrainians increased, the State Secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office, Mr. Hidvéghi, stated:
“We would lose significant EU funds, agricultural subsidies would be taken away from Hungarians, the Ukrainian underworld would enter Hungary—along with crime, weapons and drug trafficking. The market would be flooded with substandard and often dangerous Ukrainian food products, the pension system would collapse, not to mention the imported diseases that would endanger children and the elderly.”
A hundred years ago, fascist Hungarians accused Jews (from Galicia) of bringing disease and posing a threat to the Hungarian nation. Today, the same is being said of Ukrainians. The goal remains the same: to sow hatred. The method remains the same: ethno-nationalist propaganda and racism.
more here: https://stephanmueller.substack.com/p/ethno-nationalist-hate-propaganda
I hope you dont mind the long reply
best
Stephan Müller
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Those are all good points. Especially in connection with Ukraine, which I hadn’t really noticed.
As for Orban – my view was always: he’s too cynical to be antisemitic.
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Thanks for the great piece.
I hope you dont mind a few brief comments. Originally prepared as social media comments, therefore partly quite short:
2026 as the 1848 revolution were primarily about freedom and only implicit about liberalism or illiberalism. Both times young people carried the change.
2026 (young) Hungarians freed themselves from the dominating father figure Orban who told them what to think and what to do and when they were different were told not to be Hungarians anymore. (more about here: https://substack.com/home/post/p-193332268 vagy magyarul: https://substack.com/home/post/p-193333194
The hope is that Magyar will change this and in his speech on Batthyany square he clearly expressed it. “A country where no one is stigmatized for thinking differently than the majority. No one is stigmatized for loving someone differently than the majority, or for believing in something different than the majority.”
The election evening event was by purpose on Batthyany square. Magyar emphasised always he will now sit on Batthyany’s seat “Batthyány Lajos székében”, the first Hungarian prime minister during the Hungarian liberation war 1848/49. So Magyar was liberating the country again from an oppressive regime just as Batthyany tried. (And as 1848/49 was about “Austrians to go home”, 2026 was about “Ruszkik haza”)
Btw: The great Enlightenment idea and its equality meant at the end that during the time of dualism only 6-7% of the population in Hungary were eligible to vote.
When referring to Horthy and his “electoral succes”, it is worth mentioning that after WW I ca. 40% were eligible to vote. During Horthy regime it was brought down to 27-30%, depriving poorer people (and potential opposition voters) of the right to vote and in country-side secret voting wasn’t allowed (similar to Orbans regime?).
“Like Orbán’s, the Horthy regime described itself as “Christian” and “national.” This expressed opposition to both liberalism and communism”. In my opinion this expressed far more: at least in the Horthy regime this had an antisemitic connotation – Jews were considered neither “national” nor “Christian”.
When talking about post-1989 “dormant attitudes from the Horthy period, which had viewed liberalism and communism as related siblings” one could also add that again both attitudes carry an implicit antisemitism, since Hungarians connect both liberalism and communism with Jewish people.
best regards
Stephan Müller
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